An Analysis on the Character Updates + Approximation on the Total Character Count

[Keku]

Greetings from Finland fellow smashers!

As some of you might not yet be aware, we've currently had a little over 50% of the updates before the Big Day, December 3rd (not for us Europeans though... *cry*), 76 updates total. 73 updates still remain unrevealed. Today Sakurai brought Diddy Kong to the roster of the Brawl, which made me, well, first of all go wow, and after that wow again, because I realised that he's bringing out new characters very frequently! This lead me to some calculations.

So, we've had 76 updates so far, and we've had 17 characters revealed. That makes roughly 0,22 characters/update. Assuming there will be 73 more updates until December 3rd and that Sakurai will reveal all characters before that (that's the rumor I heard), that equals another 17 characters. In this approximation, we'd have a character roster of 34 brave Nintendo-fighters smashing each other's butts off, which sounds like a really nice amount to me.

Considering this is just a guess based on the updates we've had this far, we might aswell add some well argumented guesses in the soup. Optimistically thinking (for those who enjoy the quantity of characters), Sakurai might not reveal all the characters before Dec 3rd, leaving something for us to discover. This would, of course, add to the total count of the roster. Secondly, he might want to sprint the updates when the release-date approaches, giving us more characters than he'd usually do, because as we all know this would be the climax of hype and thus good for sales.

Well, those are my thoughts, feel free to add anything or point out something that I haven't noticed.

 

[Vro]

I'm pretty sure he's not going to reveal any of the secret characters. The full default roster will probably be released tho. Given that and that he probably will save the best for last, your guess may not be that far off.

 

[Super Smash Master]

I don't agree with that. I don't think Sakurai was in as much as a rush to unveil all the characters before. He was doing it much more slowly. I think he will start showing off characters at a quicker rate to get them all out before December 3rd.

 

[Caleb Wolfbrand]

I love Finland, home of my favorite band, Sonata Arctica!!! Greetings!!! XD

I really expect about 40 characters. If there were 50 I would never leave the house, and if there was 30 or so I'd be disappointed.

 

[Keku]

I love Finland, home of my favorite band, Sonata Arctica!!! Greetings!!! XD

I really expect about 40 characters. If there were 50 I would never leave the house, and if there was 30 or so I'd be disappointed.

Hehe, cheers. Do you enjoy the new album? (I suppose I saw an ad on the telly, I'm not that much into their music myself.)

Ontopic: this wasn't really my opinion on the final number of characters, but when thinking about it, ~35 sounds like a really reasonable number to me. I'd be more than happy.

Edit: By the way, I'm not sure if this would fit better in the Brawl character discussion, as the topic handles both the Updates and Characters. You mods can decide.

 

[Adi]

Yup, my guess is that character updates are going to occur more frequently, my guess to the point where it's around 40 characters revealed by December 3rd.

 

[Jordo]

34 is only nine more from the 25 character roster in melee. 34 if anything is a possible number for starting characters.

 

[Mic_128]

Just remember, in Melee Sakurai waied til AFTER the game was released to reveal a secret chracter each week.

 

[NintendoWarrior]

Just remember, in Melee Sakurai waied til AFTER the game was released to reveal a secret chracter each week.

Thanks for that info. I was wondering how he handled that for Melee.

 

[Keku]

34 is only nine more from the 25 character roster in melee. 34 if anything is a possible number for starting characters.

True, but it would include more new characters than just nine, since all of the characters in melee won't return, as Sakurai stated himself.

Also, here's a quote from SamuraiPanda's translation thread:

#251-260: Sakurai in response to an email asking that everything be unlocked as a default = "Well... that is a tough question. As long as the internet exists, all secrets will be revealed quickly. Sometimes even before the game comes out, even. Secret characters are one of the fun parts of Smash. Although you don't want to find out until the very end, I guess [literally: 'after all,' so there is no doubt in this statement] I'll reveal them. Again, just like "Smash fist" [literally: 'Sumabura ken,' the name of the Japanese SSBM site?] I can't just hold these characters back. "

He didn't really state when, though, but it sounds pretty reasonable that he doesn't want to use up all his aces in his sleeve, and thus reveal all the secret (in which case we shouldn't consider them secret anymore) characters.

 

[The Hypnotist]

34 plus a very very secret characters is a good number, so maybe like 36.

36 compared to 26 is 10 more, which is good. But it's really better because we won't have those clones anymore. So it's really like 40.

 

[The Hypnotist]

Let's get some more feedback on this.

 

[Exorcist]

Very interesting number you got there. The possibly fake guy on some other site that's causing alot of controversy because he might be real said he was possitive that:
Lucas will be in
A veteran will leave
a represented game will leave
and there will be 34 chars.

I absolutely don't believe this random guy.

But the number 34 is starting to be the safe number to guess. Whereas 40 is the most wanted number.

I also do think that he will reveal every char before the game comes out except the third partys. See if you guys follow me on this:

Meta Knight has been shown off ALOT ALOT since the dojo updates have come out, and he hasn't been revealed. But Snake, a third party, hasn't been in one pic. I really don't think he'll be revealed pre game. And I also don't like 2 other third partys will either. So my final number will be 36. And this number follows another theory of some guy actually disecting the "NAMES" update pic and counting the squares(look for the link someone, if you care enough). I hope I'm wrong though because at least 38 chars would be cool.

 

[Pluvia's other account]

I would be kinda dissapointed with 36.

There are ALOT of character that people want in. 36 just seems lazy.

Atleast 40 is what I think, 40-45.

 

[Fanewgie]

On a good note, I agree with your post completely, OP, and I've been predicting a roster size of at least 34 for a few weeks now; you can ask Sariku.Uchiha or Blackadder since I frequently blab my theories to them when they probably don't care to hear it. I haven't made a point to make a post like this, since honestly, no one ever listens to my thought-out posts and they usually get lost in "RIDLY 4 BROL LOL" spam.

I think 34 is pretty reasonable. People say it's only 8 more than Melee's roster, but you have to consider that not all of Melee is returning and that any clone being un-cloned, programming-wise, essentially counts as a whole new character. Let's break it down!

26 characters in Melee. They cut the clones and bring us down to 20. Add MetaKnight, Pit, Zero Suit Samus and Wario. 24 becomes our essential starting roster, leaving us with a whopping 10 unlockables if they continue a-character-a-week updates on the site to bring us to 34.

Now... 10 character slots. Say we have Ganondorf and Young Link returning as complete new characters, essentially newcomers. We have Ike, Pokemon Trainer, Diddy Kong and Snake. We still have four slots that can pretty much be anything you want to imagine.

A higher number, towards 36-38, would certainly be more pleasant, but a 34 minimum is still an awful lot of brawlers and newcomers to play around with. I think hoping for higher than 40 is just setting yourself up for disappointment. 50 is just plain stupid and insane.

On the frustrating side of things, why do people still think that what we're getting from now to release is our starting roster? Sakurai has said, himself, that he will be revealing every character before release. He knows that the internet will ruin it anyway, and he wants to do it himself. Why can't people accept this? We will see every playable character before release.

 

[Xanderous]

He most definitely will reveal third parties beforehand, simply to sell more copies, but I don't think we'll see every character before the game ships.

 

[Pit 42]

Why 34? 34 doesn't sound like a nice, round number for characters to me. I'd say 40, or 42 (being that it's the answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything).

 

[IllidR]

I really don't like the idea of only 34 characters, I want around 40. Plus like McFox said they updated beyond when Melee was released so why not do the same this time? And if they were to release all the characters before Brawl, Sakurai could do that easily.. he has no set system that we've seen to revealing something new. And he's been revealing new characters more frequently than before now that a lot of the crap updates are out of the way.

 

[Cheezball]

I think that people don't see that if its going to be 34, thats really good, compared to other games I played with new characters there are only like 1-3 new characters added to a second version. That was an example I just made up, I wasn't directing it towards any particular game. Also, this is kind of off topic, but notice how Sakurai added Pokemon trainer as a character, totally unexpected. You never know what he is going to add next. I am pretty much saying that he is going to add unexpected characters. Ok. I agree with the "more than 34" thing. I would like at least 36-40 characters because if theres to many characters the icons will be small and hard to click on.

 

[Fanewgie]

Plus like McFox said they updated beyond when Melee was released so why not do the same this time?

Do people even read my posts?

I'm not trying to say they won't update past release, but I'm 100% certain we'll see every character by then. Unless Sakurai suddenly changed his mind, which I guess is entirely possible. But he said he'd rather profile every character and reveal them himself rather then have them all be spoiled lamely with a simple "<character> is in Brawl" minutes after release.

 

[Cheezball]

But he said he'd rather profile every character and reveal them himself rather then have them all be spoiled lamely with a simple "<character> is in Brawl" minutes after release.

The thing is that I wouldn't want this to happen, it could spoil the fun of finding out what the characters are going to be. Ok, maybe I am a bit curious about the characters myself, but I want to keep the secret characters not told before the game is released. See what I mean?

I'll summarize what I just said.

I don't want him telling all the characters before the game comes out.

Also, I agree with you. ^^ I hope he waits a little after the game is released to finish telling all the characters.

 

[Kirby knight]

Do people even read my posts?

I'm not trying to say they won't update past release, but I'm 100% certain we'll see every character by then. Unless Sakurai suddenly changed his mind, which I guess is entirely possible. But he said he'd rather profile every character and reveal them himself rather then have them all be spoiled lamely with a simple "<character> is in Brawl" minutes after release.

That sounds resonable. I mean doesn't Japan have an earlier release date than those in the U.S? The very first day it comes out in Japan almost all of the character will be known in 1-2 days.

I'd rather Sakurai reveal them himself than being spoiled though other means.

 

[Fanewgie]

That sounds resonable. I mean doesn't Japan have an earlier release date than those in the U.S? The very first day it comes out in Japan almost all of the character will be known in 1-2 days.

I'd rather Sakurai reveal them himself than being spoiled though other means.

I think Melee was released in japan a mere week before the states. Logically, no one could have known about Mewtwo (or Game and Watch for that matter) in less than a week. There aren't 200 hours in a week. Yet, the same day as Melee's release, the entire roster was leaked. I think it might've been a day or two before release.

 

[Xanderous]

There are other ways to get Mewtwo and Game and Watch than playing 200 hours. You could probably unlock every char in 10-15 hours.

 

[Arteen]

I think that is is likely all the characters will be revealed before release because of the inclusion of third-party characters. Third-party companies will want their characters known for purposes of hype and cross-promotion. For example, consumers who are interested in Brawl will see characters like Solid Snake and become more curious and interested in the Metal Gear games as a result, even if the series didn't interest them before. It works the other way too. Fans of the third party games, even if they weren't otherwise interested in Brawl, will become more interested in buying the game.

I'm pretty sure that a lot of people bought Soul Calibur II for GC because of Link, or Dead or Alive 4 because of the Halo Spartan. And the inclusion of Marth and Roy in Melee (regardless in the context of the argument their status as first party game characters) got Western gamers much more interested in the Fire Emblem series. It was a gamble that paid off for them, so I think third-party developers would pressure Nintendo to reveal their characters to get in on the Brawl-generated attention and hype.

 

[vesperview]

He will have to reveal the roster before the game's release, there still isn't like a Final trailer or anything.

 

[burrito]

On the frustrating side of things, why do people still think that what we're getting from now to release is our starting roster? Sakurai has said, himself, that he will be revealing every character before release. He knows that the internet will ruin it anyway, and he wants to do it himself. Why can't people accept this? We will see every playable character before release.

The thing is though, Fanewgie, Sakurai never actually said that. I assume you are referring to SamuraPanda's translation thread, right? Well, it's a misunderstanding on your part. All he ever said was that he would eventually reveal all characters, not that he would reveal them before Smash Bros. is released.

This is what Sakurai says according to SamuraiPanda's translation:

#251-260: Sakurai in response to an email asking that everything be unlocked as a default = "Well... that is a tough question. As long as the internet exists, all secrets will be revealed quickly. Sometimes even before the game comes out, even. Secret characters are one of the fun parts of Smash. Although you don't want to find out until the very end, I guess [literally: 'after all,' so there is no doubt in this statement] I'll reveal them. Again, just like "Smash fist" [literally: 'Sumabura ken,' the name of the Japanese SSBM site?] I can't just hold these characters back. "

Sakurai even refers to the "smash fist" blog, in which he revealed all the secret characters after the game was released.

 

[lollerskater]

I don't agree with that. I don't think Sakurai was in as much as a rush to unveil all the characters before. He was doing it much more slowly. I think he will start showing off characters at a quicker rate to get them all out before December 3rd.

I think he will be posting character profiles at the same rate, but the difference is that before he would post characters that we already knew about, but now he'll have nothing but new characters to unveil.

I also think that he'll unveil most of the starting roster and maybe a FEW of the unlockable characters leading up to the total of ~34, but then there will be around 10 unlockable characters that won't be revealed until after the game comes out, resulting in a roster of around 40-45 characters.

 

[Super Smash Master]

I don't really agree with that number of characters, because some people will be disappointed. Sakurai wants to make this the best smash ever, since he says it's the last. This means he wants to satisfy as many people as possible. This is my predictions for the final roster from my old thread (http://smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=106023)

1. Mario
2. Link
3. Pikachu
4. Kirby
5. Samus
6. Zamus
7. Metaknight
8. Pit
9. Wario
10. Snake
11. Fox
12. Bowser
13. Captain Falcon
14. DK
15. Gannondorf (Redone with new moveset)
16. Ice Climbers
17. Jigglypuff
18. Luigi
19. Ike
20. Mewtwo
21. Game and Watch
22. Lucas (Replace Ness)
23. Peach
24. Zelda
25. Sheik (I think sheik will stay, because characters are based off of all their appearances in games, not just one)
26. Yoshi
27. Possibly Black Knight or another FE character that would be different than Ike.
28. Diddy Kong
29. Krystal
30. Sonic
31. Megaman
32. Dedede
33. Lolo (Because Sakurai has said how much he loves this character and the games he starred in and, because he helped to create him. He also said he wants to put all his creations in this game, because he couldn't in the last game. Aka Metaknight and Dedede)
34. Geno
35. Olimar
36. Ray 01
37. Ridley
38. Takamaru
39. Little Mac
40. Claus (Cyborg Style)
41. Pokemon Trainer (Charizard, Ivysaur and Squirtle)
42. Andy from Advance Wars (Because this is a very popular series from Nintendo that nobody has even mentioned for Brawl until now. I think he should earn a spot as much as Fire Emblem. I mean what is Advance Wars besides Fire Emblem with guys with guns instead of guys with swords?)
43. Isaac
44. Sukapon (How hard is it to make a character model consisting of circles that float?)
45. Dimeru

This was, a great number of franchises are represented, a good number of the characters on the poll are fighters, and most people will be happy. Sorry, no Lucario, Toad, Petey, Bowser Jr, etc. If you don't count Sheik and Zamus as their own characters, that is 43 characters. This is a very believeable number. I think Sakurai has the resources to complete this roster, and will do it to create one of the most robust fighters ever.

 

[Mr.Victory07]

I would be more than happy with 35+ characters, and i myself am predicting around 1 new character update a week. But i think he should be able to get at least the starting roster out in 73 updates(give or take about 10 because of the multi-update days)

 

[IllidR]

I don't really agree with that number of characters, because some people will be disappointed. Sakurai wants to make this the best smash ever, since he says it's the last. This means he wants to satisfy as many people as possible. This is my predictions for the final roster from my old thread (http://smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=106023)



This was, a great number of franchises are represented, a good number of the characters on the poll are fighters, and most people will be happy. Sorry, no Lucario, Toad, Petey, Bowser Jr, etc. If you don't count Sheik and Zamus as their own characters, that is 43 characters. This is a very believeable number. I think Sakurai has the resources to complete this roster, and will do it to create one of the most robust fighters ever.

Black Knight is on there.. I approve of that roster. It's a good number with some good characters.

BLACK KNIGHT FOR BRAWL!

 

[Super Smash Master]

Black Knight is on there.. I approve of that roster. It's a good number with some good characters.

BLACK KNIGHT FOR BRAWL!

I think he has a very good chance as any FE character. FE is an odd duck, because it has no set protagonist. That's why Marth could be replaced so easilly. I just don't think Sakurai would want another swordman the same type as Ike. Black Knight would be heavier, slower, and more powerful.

 

[GoldenS1104]

I think he has a very good chance as any FE character. FE is an odd duck, because it has no set protagonist. That's why Marth could be replaced so easilly. I just don't think Sakurai would want another swordman the same type as Ike. Black Knight would be heavier, slower, and more powerful.

I agree that Black Knight would be a great addition for those reasons. Other people have expressed concerns that there are no non-sword characters from FE, but to them I say **** YOU!

 

[Keku]

I saw a lot of posts telling that they would _like_ to have a lot more characters than only 34. Sure, that's obvious, we all do, but wanting and expecting are two different things. The thread post is just a forecast on the basis of what Sakurai has given us so far. When adding the most-probably-positive x-factor, I'd say it would be safe to expect 34-42 (maximum!) characters - no more, no less.

That's my 50 (euro-)cents.

 

[bluethree]

Your math doesn't fit your logic.

You said that you noticed that character updates are happening more frequently lately but you take the mean of characters introduced since the beginning. If Sakurai is really releasing characters at a more frequent rate, wouldn't it be a little more than the number you proposed?

Reading the SamuraiPanda translation that was reposted in this thread leads me to believe that Sakurai also wants to treat unlockables the same way he did in Melee (this is just my interpretation made froma vague comment). As Mic said earlier, he started releasing unlockables after the game was already out.

Just my 2 (American) cents

I have no predictions on roster size...

 

[.M.e.t.a.k.n.i.g.h.t.]

I personally would be disappointed with a roster size of 34......
I think he will release characters at a more frequent pace....but he will not reveal all the characters...because part of what sells the game is the mystery of who will be a character....who can I unlock....
Without that aspect of mystery the release would be a lot less dramatic and on the disappointing side...

Just my thoughts......(40-42)

 

[Aninymouse]

What floors me is that people expect all the "WARNING: NEWCOMER APPROACHING" guys to be unlocked from the starting roster. If that's the case, I wouldn't expect to see many more of those at all until release -- the character updates might stop completely once all the veterans are out, or perhaps they'll continue at the current rate of 1.2 - 1.3 characters a week and the roster really is around the 40+ range.

Personally, I get a good feeling from the 34-36 estimate.

I mean... Sakurai himself said not all the oldies would return, flat out, and we can pretty much guess who doesn't deserve to come back at a glance: Doc, Pichu, and Roy, with Y. Link & Falco somewhere in limbo.

 

[Super Smash Master]

Hahahaha..1.2 characters a week.

 

[Keku]

Your math doesn't fit your logic.

You said that you noticed that character updates are happening more frequently lately but you take the mean of characters introduced since the beginning. If Sakurai is really releasing characters at a more frequent rate, wouldn't it be a little more than the number you proposed?

Reading the SamuraiPanda translation that was reposted in this thread leads me to believe that Sakurai also wants to treat unlockables the same way he did in Melee (this is just my interpretation made froma vague comment). As Mic said earlier, he started releasing unlockables after the game was already out.

Just my 2 (American) cents

I have no predictions on roster size...

Actually, character updates have been coming on a quite steady flow. We've just had more newcomers lately. The steady (and high, in my opinion) flow made me want to think this out. And I agree with you that he's probably going to reveal characters post-release aswell. Therefore I said that it's safe to expect 34-42 characters, a careful 37 being my personal guess.

 

[Limon]

1 or 2 characters per week is not bad...

I will be satisfied with 40.