I'm still leaning at 45:55, Wario.
As I've said, Wario is just limited far greater in this match-up because he can't just aerial -> safely space -> aerial -> space as he pleases- which I'm surprised that some people still haven't realized that it doesn't work all that well against Falcon. I would consider it even greater in Wario's favor for the fact that he DOES have a chaingrab on Falcon that no one seems to use {probably because it's so strict} and he does have other ways of pressuring Falcon. - At a professional level, I don't really see many of the top Warios demolishing Ally's Falcon in a match-up that most of you have been claiming to be 'oh-so good' for him. Quite the contrary.
40:60? Understandable.
30:70? Learn the match-up.
Ally is an overrated example, but since he's the only person I see really using Falcon noticeably, he's the best subject for topic, no? Match-up threads are suppose to be focused around professional level of play, not ****y Falcons playing ****y Warios and going "Oh hey, we can grab release to knee. We win." - Look at it on a top level of play. There's more reasons as to why Falcon is good against Wario aside from that stupid grab release.